The Cost of a Missed Putback

December 27, 2006
Josh Howard

Please don’t miss, Josh.

Just a quick little tidbit for you. Have you ever been watching a game when one of your guys tries to tip in a rebound and misses? You probably thought to yourself, “Oh well, he missed the shot, but at least it’s a rebound.” But is the rebound worth more than the missed shot cost you? I think the answer is pretty surprising.

Using the RotoPoll Rater Creator, we can see the relative effect of the rebound and the missed shot. Based on the numbers for the season to date, a rebound adds 0.36 (roughly) to a player’s overall RotoPoll score. Incredibly, missing a single field goal subtracts 0.59 from a player’s score. That’s right: Missing a shot costs you almost twice as much as a rebound helps you.

For those of you suspiciously thinking, “Wait a second, that doesn’t seem right. Maybe your scoring system is screwed up,” I can only offer to let you take a look at how the scores are calculated and offer your opinions. I stand firmly behind these scores and the methodology for calculating them (and I think this is the same way most sites do it).

Sample data:
Before the rebound and missed putback
After the rebound and missed putback
For a net result of -0.23. The difference holds up, no matter what stats you use as a baseline.

Just another thing to think about while you’re watching your fantasy teams in action.