Who’s Outperforming, and Who’s Disappointing

Kevin Martin

Kevin Martin is flying high.

Ok, this should be fun… Today we’ll take a look at which fantasy players are outperforming their preseason expectations (that is, who was underrated coming into the season), and who’s been underperforming (the biggest busts).

The obvious way to do that would be to compare their preseason ranks or draft position (I’ll use ESPN’s) against where they are now. Doing a simple subtraction yields the following list:

Player Rank diff
J.R. Smith 122
Josh Childress 99
Al Jefferson 94
Kevin Martin 84
Sean May 74

However, I don’t think that gives us the full story. Clearly, players who were ranked very low have an advantage in this measurement, and a guy like Gilbert Arenas, in the midst of a monster year, has no chance of showing up. So another idea would be to use the ratio of the ranks:

Player Rank ratio
Gilbert Arenas 8.00
Kevin Martin 4.11
Caron Butler 3.62
Carmelo Anthony 3.38
J.R. Smith 3.03

Aha, there’s Gil. This list looks a little better to me, and notice J.R. Smith is still up there. But actually, I think the best way to meausure this is to measure the player’s current RotoPoll score against the score he would have, if he still occupied the same position as the preseason rankings. That is, since Gilbert Arenas was 8th on the preseason list, we measure his current score against that of the player currently ranked 8th (Carmelo Anthony). This should give us the truest measure of how much more a player is helping his fantasy teams than we expected him to.

So, without any further ado, here’s the full list:

Player Score diff
Kevin Martin 4.90
J.R. Smith 4.15
Caron Butler 3.44
Josh Childress 3.42
Mo Williams 3.10
Josh Howard 3.02
Al Jefferson 2.86
Andre Iguodala 2.79
Andris Biedrins 2.66
Baron Davis 2.59
Jarrett Jack 2.54
Leandro Barbosa 2.48
Sean May 2.37
Carlos Boozer 2.37
Zach Randolph 2.36
Mike Miller 2.35
Zaza Pachulia 2.14
Gilbert Arenas 2.11
Carmelo Anthony 2.00
Udonis Haslem 1.95
Jamal Crawford 1.93
Rashard Lewis 1.89
Antawn Jamison 1.69
Brevin Knight 1.68
Danny Granger 1.53
Andres Nocioni 1.51
Luke Ridnour 1.46
Chris Duhon 1.41
Deron Williams 1.32
Rafer Alston 1.32
Shane Battier 1.30
Richard Hamilton 1.29
Manu Ginobili 1.23
Alonzo Mourning 1.23
Yao Ming 1.22
Luol Deng 1.16
Kwame Brown 1.13
Luke Walton 1.13
T.J. Ford 1.03
Dwyane Wade 1.01
Jamaal Tinsley 1.00
Jorge Garbajosa 0.98
Travis Outlaw 0.95
Mike Dunleavy 0.87
Tayshaun Prince 0.87
Grant Hill 0.83
Devin Harris 0.83
Allen Iverson 0.74
Ryan Gomes 0.73
Steve Nash 0.73
Andre Miller 0.65
Kenny Thomas 0.63
Emeka Okafor 0.61
Marcus Camby 0.59
Ben Gordon 0.58
Joe Johnson 0.54
Andrew Bogut 0.47
Josh Smith 0.40
Samuel Dalembert 0.37
Erick Dampier 0.31
Michael Redd 0.25
Brendan Haywood 0.24
Wally Szczerbiak 0.23
Derek Fisher 0.19
Jermaine O’Neal 0.13
Nene Hilario 0.11
Tony Parker 0.10
Kurt Thomas 0.10
Jason Williams 0.09
Troy Murphy 0.09
Jason Terry 0.09
Nenad Krstic 0.07
Shaun Livingston 0.05
Shawn Marion 0.00
Raja Bell 0.00
Rasheed Wallace 0.00
Vince Carter 0.00
Paul Pierce -0.00
Hakim Warrick -0.01
Kevin Garnett -0.02
Kyle Korver -0.02
Nazr Mohammed -0.02
Kendrick Perkins -0.06
Chauncey Billups -0.16
Cuttino Mobley -0.17
Shareef Abdur-Rahim -0.18
Jason Kidd -0.23
Eddy Curry -0.24
Quentin Richardson -0.24
Donyell Marshall -0.25
Shelden Williams -0.27
Stephen Jackson -0.28
Tim Thomas -0.33
Marko Jaric -0.33
Lamar Odom -0.34
Juan Dixon -0.36
Earl Boykins -0.36
Pau Gasol -0.36
Drew Gooden -0.40
Marvin Williams -0.46
Jerry Stackhouse -0.47
Smush Parker -0.52
Dwight Howard -0.57
Paul Millsap -0.68
Ray Allen -0.70
Chris Wilcox -0.72
Ron Artest -0.79
Tyson Chandler -0.81
Matt Harpring -0.83
Charlie Villanueva -0.86
Ricky Davis -0.93
Raymond Felton -0.96
Mehmet Okur -1.08
Joel Przybilla -1.09
Vladimir Radmanovic -1.10
Martell Webster -1.13
Al Harrington -1.13
Dirk Nowitzki -1.20
David West -1.21
Sebastian Telfair -1.22
Ben Wallace -1.29
Andrew Bynum -1.29
Steve Francis -1.36
Amare Stoudemire -1.37
Theo Ratliff -1.37
Sarunas Jasikevicius -1.41
Antonio Mcdyess -1.41
Chris Paul -1.45
Kobe Bryant -1.46
Delonte West -1.48
Andrea Bargnani -1.51
Tim Duncan -1.53
Ike Diogu -1.60
LaMarcus Aldridge -1.63
Elton Brand -1.64
Hedo Turkoglu -1.67
Larry Hughes -1.67
Jameer Nelson -1.75
Chris Webber -1.81
Mike James -1.82
Morris Peterson -1.82
Antoine Walker -1.84
Peja Stojakovic -1.85
Kirk Hinrich -1.90
Carlos Arroyo -1.90
Zydrunas Ilgauskas -2.00
Boris Diaw -2.09
Desagana Diop -2.09
Jordan Farmar -2.15
Rudy Gay -2.18
Corey Maggette -2.23
Speedy Claxton -2.25
LeBron James -2.27
Darko Milicic -2.34
Chris Bosh -2.45
Marquis Daniels -2.48
Sam Cassell -2.54
Channing Frye -2.55
Primoz Brezec -2.61
Jamaal Magloire -2.71
Chris Kaman -2.79
Juwan Howard -2.85
Rajon Rondo -2.94
Marcus Williams -3.02
Mike Bibby -3.02
Andrei Kirilenko -3.06
Tracy McGrady -3.13
Michael Finley -3.14
Eddie Jones -3.27
Brandon Roy -3.30
Gerald Wallace -3.33
Randy Foye -3.55
Stephon Marbury -3.81
Adam Morrison -3.86
Richard Jefferson -3.97
Tyrus Thomas -4.02
Jalen Rose -4.36
Bonzi Wells -4.42
Brad Miller -5.29
Shaquille O’Neal -5.38
Jason Richardson -5.39
J.J. Redick -5.77
Kenyon Martin -5.98

Congrats if you drafted guys at the top of this list.

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3 Responses to Who’s Outperforming, and Who’s Disappointing

  1. bublitchki says:

    Cool analysis.

    While this might not be all that helpful in trying to predict a player’s performance going forward, it could be very useful in helping pinpoint which players to buy low/sell high on. Take someone like Kirilenko, who shows a -3.06 score differential. This is a quick and easy way to see that Kirilenko’s owners are probably pretty frustrated with him right about now (I know, I’m one). If you think he might somehow turn things around in the last 2/3 of the season, you can probably pick him up on the cheap. Conversely, Gilbert Arenas’ owners who don’t believe he’ll sustain his otherworldly level of play much longer can probably swap him for a KG/Marion/LeBron, straight up.

    Something I have often thought would be useful is a list, based on previous seasons’ game logs, of which players are typically fast/slow starters and/or strong/poor finishers. For example, Tracy McGrady is such a notoriously poor starter that John Hollinger even wrote in his 2004 player analysis of him: “If you’re a fantasy player, one good strategy might be to avoid drafting McGrady and then try to trade for him on December 1.” Josh Smith is another who has tantalized Fantasy HoopsHeads by finishing strong in each of his first two seasons, only to subsequently disappoint with slow starts the following year. Carlos Boozer is someone who seems to come out of the gates with a bang and gradually wear down as the season progresses. I’m much too lazy to ever go through the labor of generating such a list on my own, yet if someone were to do so (hint, hint) it could be a marvelous tool – especially if used in conjunction with the above list – for determining buy low/sell high candidates.

  2. rotopoll says:

    Good thinking. I hadn’t even thought about using the list that way. I like it.

    I agree that analysis across multiple seasons would be interesting and useful. It’s possible, but would be a lot of work. Maybe if there’s time…

  3. […] Buy Low and Sell High Opportunities This idea first appeared in a comment on the post about who’s over- and underperforming, but I think it’s good enough that it deserves a quick post. […]

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