Free Throws: How Important Are They?

When I started diving into the first batches of RotoPoll rankings, I was amazed by the influence of free throw shooting on a player’s value (perhaps this is why my teams always rank near the bottom in free throw percentage). I saw that a player like Allen Iverson (currently #1 in FT value, by a mile) contributes incredible value from his FT shooting alone. I always knew he was a good shooter, but I figured his poor FG% kind of canceled out his good FT%.

Wrong.

While his FG% is pretty poor (-1.67), his FT% score (2.58) is nearly double it in the positive direction.

For perhaps a better illustration, let’s consult the RotoPoll “Rater Creator” (I’m struggling to find a good name for this feature).

Let’s plug in some fairly modest numbers for a game: 12 points, 5 rebounds, 2 assists, a steal, a block, a three, 5/11 field goal shooting, and 2/2 from the line. (We’ll call this hypothetical player “Shane Battier”.) The Rater tells us that this game is good for a RotoPoll score of -1.08, good enough to be the 62nd-best player in 8-category leagues. Not too bad.

Now what happens if our hero Shane misses two measly free throws, and ends up 2/4 from the line? You’d guess he drops a little, right? But the rest of the line is the same–still 12 points, a block, and so on–so it can’t affect him too much. Well, guess again. He drops all the way down to a -3.80 score, which would rank 131st. All for missing two free throws!

See for yourself:
The 2/2 FT game (rank: 62)
The 2/4 FT game (rank: 131)

I guess it makes sense, if you think about it. 100% FT shooting would be the all-time best, and 50% would be near the all-time worst. And four free throws is a fair number to shoot in a game, slightly above average.

As a final illustration, take the 2/4 FT game and let’s add two blocks to it. Guess what the rank is? 62nd, just like when Shane had only one block but was 2/2 from the line. So every time one of your players misses a free throw, it’s like taking one of your precious blocks off the board.

Think about that next time you see Lebron brick an opportunity for a three-point play.

Advertisements

3 Responses to Free Throws: How Important Are They?

  1. Abe says:

    Rotopoll is the bomb! If you think this article is interesting…try the poll!

  2. […] Pro Bowl with you, Mr. Owens. [WBRS Sports Blog] • How important are free throws, anyway? [Rotopoll] • Get your fake Brad Childress mustaches here. [The Fanhouse] • What some people will […]

  3. […] read more | digg story Posted by basketblog | […]

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: